Last Updated on February 9, 2026 by Matt Musico
Which sluggers could be the 2026 home run leaders for each MLB team? Let’s see what the projections say.
Key Takeaways:
- Shohei Ohtani leads all projections (52 HR)
- Only four players are projected for 40-plus homers
- Red Sox have the lowest team leader (18 HR)
- Aaron Judge’s 42 HR projection would be his fourth such performance since 2022
It’s happening, you guys. I’m starting to see pitchers tossing bullpens, as well as position players going through unofficial drills at Spring Training complexes in Arizona and Florida.
There might be a foot of snow still on the ground in my backyard, but if I close my eyes — and have the heat on in my house — I can feel spring approaching.
I’ve spent plenty of time talking about 2025 home runs in all kinds of different ways, but as promised, it’s time to look forward to 2026 and what might happen on diamonds across the league in the coming months.
Naturally, a question that comes to mind is…Which players could lead their team in homers this season?
This is where we tap into the projection systems made by people much smarter than me. The projections you see below are courtesy of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS, which is housed on FanGraphs. I’ll also add some thoughts within each division.
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Projected 2026 Home Run Leaders: American League
American League East
| Team | Player(s) | HR Projection |
| Baltimore Orioles | Pete Alonso | 38 |
| Boston Red Sox | Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Trevor Story | 18 |
| New York Yankees | Aaron Judge | 42 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Junior Caminero | 36 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 32 |
Pete Alonso is expected to bring the noise and the funk to Baltimore this season. The payday he received from the Orioles is solely because he’s been one of baseball’s best power hitters since his debut in 2019. His move to the AL East gives him some favorable parks to hit in more often than he ever has during his career to this point, too.
I’m also shocked that Judge’s home run projection isn’t higher. There’s only one guy with a projection above 50 (you can guess who). While 42 is still a powerful campaign, the slugger has shown no signs of slowing down as he enters his age-34 season, so I’ll take the over on that…assuming he stays healthy enough.
And how about the Red Sox? They’re the only team with a ZiPS-projected home run leader below 20. That won’t look good to Boston fans who watched their team not add a significant bat this winter after watching Alex Bregman head to the Cubs.
American League Central
| Team | Player(s) | HR Projection |
| Chicago White Sox | Munetaka Murakami | 24 |
| Cleveland Guardians | Jose Ramirez | 26 |
| Detroit Tigers | Spencer Torkelson | 31 |
| Kansas City Royals | Bobby Witt Jr. | 27 |
| Minnesota Twins | Byron Buxton | 24 |
No real surprises here, as Ramirez, Torkelson, Witt, and Buxton have either been their team’s home run leader or among the leaders in recent years. But the obvious one that catches my eye is Munetaka Murakami.
The White Sox nabbed him from Japan for just two years and $34 million despite originally being seen as a top bat in the free-agent market this winter. Although he put up some big power numbers in the NPB, he comes to the States with swing-and-miss concerns.
ZiPS is projecting a .234/.352/.442 line with 24 homers, 69 RBI, and 65 runs scored to go along with a 14.6% walk rate and 34.0% strikeout rate.
American League West
| Team | Player(s) | HR Projection |
| Athletics | Brent Rooker | 34 |
| Houston Astros | Christian Walker | 25 |
| Los Angeles Angels | Jo Adell | 27 |
| Seattle Mariners | Cal Raleigh | 41 |
| Texas Rangers | Wyatt Langford | 23 |
The Astros and Mariners are two teams that catch my eye when looking at these home run projections.
For Houston, I was shocked that Yordan Alvarez wasn’t on top. His 2025 was severely hampered by injuries, and I missed watching him mash taters every night. ZiPS is projecting Alvarez for 24 homers in 2026 in just 112 games played. So if he stays healthy, surpassing that total is easy money.
I’ll also be fascinated to see what kind of encore we get from Big Dumper in 2026. Raleigh is no stranger to putting up big power numbers as a backstop — he posted consecutive 30-homer performances before slugging 60 last year. But catching is physically demanding, and Raleigh has donned the tools of ignorance for at least 120 games in each of the past three seasons.
If he can surpass 30 and flirt with 40 homers, that would be incredibly impressive for the 29-year-old.
Projected 2026 Home Run Leaders: National League
National League East
| Team | Player(s) | HR Projection |
| Atlanta Braves | Matt Olson | 30 |
| Miami Marlins | Agustin Ramirez | 22 |
| New York Mets | Juan Soto | 37 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Kyle Schwarber | 43 |
| Washington Nationals | James Wood | 26 |
The Mets look very different this year compared to the last few, but one thing that probably won’t change from 2025 is Juan Soto at the top of the team’s home run leaderboard. His 43 dingers last year were not only a new career-high mark, but he was the first Met to hit more homers in a season than Pete Alonso since 2019.
I’m also interested in seeing James Wood’s progression after a solid rookie campaign. He encountered a rough second half following his All-Star selection and participation in the Home Run Derby. That’s all good information for a young hitter. Wood has a smooth swing and creates that “easy power” when he makes contact, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him slug more than 30 taters for the second year in a row.
National League Central
| Team | Player(s) | HR Projection |
| Chicago Cubs | Michael Busch | 28 |
| Cincinnati Reds | Eugenio Suarez | 35 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | Jackson Chourio | 22 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | Oneil Cruz | 23 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Nolan Gorman | 21 |
The Reds truly came out of nowhere to bolster their lineup. Sure, Cincinnati unsuccessfully tried to lure Kyle Schwarber away from the Phillies. But then they went silent after reaching the playoffs in Terry Francona’s first year as manager.
Until they struck a one-year, $15 million deal to bring Eugenio Suarez back to the organization. He’s fresh off a 49-homer, 118-RBI campaign split between Arizona and Seattle, but Suarez is also returning to Great American Ball Park. It’s a place where he owns a career OPS of .504 with 101 homers.
National League West
| Team | Player(s) | HR Projection |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | Corbin Carroll | 27 |
| Colorado Rockies | Hunter Goodman | 26 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Shohei Ohtani | 52 |
| San Diego Padres | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 26 |
| San Francisco Giants | Rafael Devers | 30 |
This Shohei Ohtani home run projection is just insane, but it’s also not. This projection is essentially saying we expect the left-handed slugger to surpass the half-century mark. But it’s also something he’s done in each of his first two seasons with the Dodgers. So, it’s not like that number is coming out of nowhere.
Willy Adames’ 30 homers in 2025 gave the Giants their first 30-homer hitter since Barry Bonds in 2004. Now that this power drought is officially a memory, can they make it two years in a row? With Adames and Rafael Devers on the roster, there’s at least a decent shot it can happen.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who’s projected to hit the most home runs in 2026?
Shohei Ohtani leads all projections at 52 home runs.
Which team has the lowest projected home run leader?
The Boston Red Sox have the lowest projection at just 18 home runs, shared between Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, and Trevor Story.
How many players are projected for 40+ home runs?
Four players: Shohei Ohtani (52), Kyle Schwarber (43), Aaron Judge (42), and Cal Raleigh (41).
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