Last Updated on January 5, 2025 by Matt Musico

It’s finally happened, folks — a new year is upon us. This is an opportunity for a fresh slate, and a chance to set some goals for 2025. But most importantly, we can now start saying “this year” instead of “next year” when referring to the 2025 MLB regular season.

OK, maybe that’s not the most important thing, but it feels like it should be toward the top of the list.

Although pitchers and catchers will begin reporting for spring training in only about six weeks, we still have a ways to go before Opening Day. The Hot Stove will certainly keep us warm in the dead of winter, but do you know what else will? Projections!

Let’s pinpoint projected 2025 home run leaders for every MLB team — according to FanGraphs’ Steamer projections — so we can revisit this in October to see what came true and what didn’t.

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Related: A Complete Guide to Single-Season (& Single-Game) HR Performances

Projected 2025 Home Run Leaders For Every MLB Team

American League East

Baltimore Orioles: Gunnar Henderson, 34

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers, 32

New York Yankees: Aaron Judge, 46

Tampa Bay Rays: Junior Caminero, 29

Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 33

For the most part, there are no surprises here. Judge’s projection comes with a little extra weight, though — he’s expected to lead all of baseball in dingers. He’s done it three times since his 2017 AL Rookie of the Year campaign, including twice in the past three seasons. As long as he stays healthy, he’ll probably be up for the task.

Henderson shared the team lead in Orioles homers with Anthony Santander in 2023 before losing the race to Tony Taters in 2024. Since Santander doesn’t seem likely to return to Baltimore, Gunnar certainly appears to have the advantage.

Santander has been linked to a few other AL East teams to varying degrees, including the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays. There could be some changes here depending on where he signs.

American League Central

Chicago White Sox: Luis Robert Jr., 28

Cleveland Guardians: Jose Ramirez, 30

Detroit Tigers: Kerry Carpenter, 23

Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr., 31

Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton, 27

For everyone’s sake, I hope Luis Robert Jr. isn’t on the White Sox long enough to lead Chicago in homers. He’ll also need to stay on the field more consistently to flirt with 30 homers. We know he can do it — Robert slugged 38 dingers through 145 games during a Silver Slugger Award campaign in 2023.

If Bobby Witt Jr. wins the Royals’ 2025 home run crown, it will be his third straight year of doing so. It would be Jose Ramirez’s sixth consecutive team HR crown, who somehow continues to be criminally underrated, in my honest opinion.

The biggest potential change that could happen here is if the Tigers land Alex Bregman to be their new third baseman. So, we’ll keep an eye on that.

American League West

Athletics: Brent Rooker, 34

Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez, 34

Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout, 31

Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodriguez & Cal Raleigh, 30

Texas Rangers: Corey Seager, 29

Again — not many surprises here. Rooker, Alvarez, Raleigh and Seager led their respective squads in homers last year. And, of course, we know what Julio is capable of despite a down 2024.

What jumps out to me, though, is Trout surpassing the 30-homer mark. That would mean this man finally stays healthy enough to be on the field for most of the regular season. I sure hope this happens. Baseball is better when he’s mashing on a nightly basis.

Projected 2025 Home Run Leaders For Every MLB Team

National League East

Atlanta Braves: Matt Olson, 33

Miami Marlins: Jesus Sanchez, 22

New York Mets: Juan Soto, 35

Philadelphia Phillies: Kyle Schwarber, 40

Washington Nationals: James Wood, 22

If Schwarber can reach the 40-homer plateau this season, it would mark the third time he’s done it in four tries as a member of the Phillies. He just missed doing it in 2024 after slugging 38 dingers, too.

The biggest offensive addition to the NL East is Juan Soto joining the Mets. He’s fresh off hitting a career-high 41 homers in 2024 with the Yankees and has produced two straight years of 30-plus homers with 100-plus RBI.

But if the Amazins re-sign Pete Alonso, he’ll have some stiff competition for the team home run crown. It’s an honor Alonso has won every single season since making his MLB debut in 2019.

National League Central

Chicago Cubs: Kyle Tucker, 31

Cincinnati Reds: Elly De La Cruz, 26

Milwaukee Brewers: Jackson Chourio, 28

Pittsburgh Pirates: Oneil Cruz, 27

St. Louis Cardinals: Willson Contreras, 24

All I notice when I see this group of projections is the row of young studs right in the middle. I mean, jeez — De La Cruz, Chourio and Cruz? Yes, please. The oldest of this trio is Oneil Cruz, who is entering his age-26 campaign. But despite making his big-league debut in 2021, he has just one year of 140-plus games under his belt (146 in 2024).

De La Cruz will be 23 in about a week and a half, and you already know I’m excited to see him take the field again. As for Chourio, he’s not even 21 years old (he will be in March), yet already has a 20-20 campaign in the big leagues under his belt.

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks: Ketel Marte, 27

Colorado Rockies: Michael Toglia, 26

Los Angeles Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani, 43

San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr., 38

San Francisco Giants: Willy Adames, 25

If this comes true, Adames won’t break the Giants’ two-decade-long power drought. As it currently stands, the last San Francisco hitter to enjoy a season of 30-plus homers was Barry Bonds… in 2004. Woof. They do have three World Series titles during this time, so I guess it evens out.

Ohtani’s 43 homers are projected to lead the National League for the second straight year. I did find Tatis Jr.’s projection interesting. He slugged 42 in 2021 before missing all of 2022 because of injury and a PED suspension. The outfielder hasn’t slugged more than 25 dingers in a season since returning, but he did go deep 21 times in just 102 games last year.

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