The baseball card collecting world is experiencing a seismic shift that’s challenging what we thought we knew about value and grading. Recent revelations about PSA grading inconsistencies have sent shockwaves through the hobby, with collectors discovering that their “forever mint” cards might not be as permanent as once believed.
What started as a Pokemon collector’s experiment has unveiled a stunning truth: nearly half of PSA 9-graded cards can achieve perfect 10 status upon resubmission.
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The Great PSA Grading Gamble Exposed?
According to reporting from The Athletic’s Michael Salfino, YouTube creator “Pokemon Steven” cracked open 189 PSA 9-graded cards and resubmitted them for evaluation. The results were mind-blowing as 81 cards (43% of the total) came back as perfect PSA 10s. That’s not a statistical anomaly; that’s a revelation that could reshape the entire collecting landscape.
This experiment wasn’t an isolated incident either. Another collector documented on social media showed 11 out of 15 resubmitted cards receiving grade bumps, with some 9s moving to coveted 10s. The implications are staggering when you consider that PSA processes approximately 100,000 cards daily across all categories.
What makes this discovery particularly fascinating is how it exposes the inherently subjective nature of card grading. Despite PSA’s rigorous multi-grader evaluation process, human judgment creates variables that collectors are now learning to navigate. As one resubmission experimenter noted, “It all depends on who you get grading your cards.”
Market Dynamics Turn Upside Down
The traditional wisdom of card values has been completely flipped on its head. We’re witnessing something unprecedented: ungraded “raw” cards frequently commanding higher prices than their PSA 9-graded counterparts. This represents a fundamental shift in collector psychology and market mechanics.
Take the 2013 Panini Select Giannis Antetokounmpo rookie card, which CardLadder data shows selling for $124 ungraded versus just $100 in PSA 9 condition. Similarly, a 2018 Topps Chrome Sapphire Shohei Ohtani card sold for $2,336 raw while a PSA 9 version fetched $2,075. These aren’t isolated examples—they’re becoming the new normal.
The math behind this phenomenon is compelling. When a PSA 10 sells for roughly double the price of a PSA 9, and resubmission success rates hover around 43%, collectors are essentially getting lottery tickets disguised as “lower-grade” cards. The ungraded card holds infinite possibility, while the PSA 9 seemed trapped…until now.
Industry Response and Authenticity Concerns
PSA President Ryan Hoge has pushed back against these resubmission experiments, questioning their validity and suggesting that “entirely different cards are resubmitted under the guise of being the same.” The company’s Brand Protection team now monitors such content, handling cases individually while maintaining their commitment to consistency.
However, the evidence keeps mounting. Multiple documented cases with photographic proof and submission labels tell a story that’s tough to ignore. The grading giant’s insistence on maintaining the highest standards doesn’t eliminate the human element that creates these grade variations.
Industry experts like Rob DeMay from NEO Cards & Comics have been advocating for PSA 9 purchases as value plays even before these resubmission results became public knowledge. “They’re the ultimate collector card,” DeMay explained, noting the steep discount and limited downside risk. Now, with evidence suggesting these 9s could potentially become 10s, the strategy looks even more attractive.
The Future of Card Collecting Strategy
This revelation might fundamentally change how collectors approach the market. The traditional premium paid for graded cards over raw examples is shrinking, particularly for modern issues where grading costs often exceed the value differential. Smart collectors are beginning to recognize that PSA 9s might represent the market’s best-kept secret.
The data suggests a new collecting philosophy: why pay premiums for ungraded cards when discounted PSA 9s offer similar upside potential with documented authenticity? Salfino noted that for Topps 2025 Baseball, approximately 21% of submissions achieve PSA 10 status, but the resubmission success rate appears significantly higher.
Moving forward, collectors need to recalibrate their understanding of permanence in grading. What seemed like eternal classifications are proving more fluid. This doesn’t necessarily mean everyone should start cracking slabs, of course. The process involves risks and costs that can quickly exceed potential gains.
The baseball card market stands at a crossroads where traditional valuation models are being challenged by new data and changing collector behavior. Whether this represents a temporary market inefficiency or a permanent paradigm shift remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the game has fundamentally changed.
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