Last Updated on August 31, 2025 by Matt Musico
When I think about Giancarlo Stanton and his MLB career, the first thing that comes to mind is one simple question: “What if?”
What if he had managed to stay healthy? He debuted with the Marlins in 2010 and didn’t log back-to-back 140+ game seasons until 2017 and 2018. What if he hadn’t been held to 114 games or fewer every year since 2022?
Even with all those what-ifs, Stanton is still MLB’s active home run leader (446 dingers as of August 30) and has been one of the game’s most feared sluggers for 15 years. He’s on the doorstep of the 500-homer club, and despite another injury-shortened season in 2025, he looks rejuvenated. Big G hasn’t produced like this in a long time.
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Breaking Down Giancarlo Stanton’s 2025 Season
Stanton’s 2025 campaign didn’t officially get underway until June 16 because of a lengthy stint on the injured list. This time, it was tennis elbow in both arms. Although he had to miss New York’s first 70 games, it certainly appears as though this issue is behind him based on his performance.
Through his first 192 trips to the plate, Stanton is hitting .298/.372/.632 with 17 homers and 46 RBI. These numbers are also accompanied by a healthy walk rate (9.9%) and a high strikeout rate (30.7%).
But, hey…the strikeouts are easier to deal with when he’s having this much success by putting the ball in play. His .350 Isolated Power (ISO) hasn’t been this high since 2017, when he slugged 59 homers during an NL MVP campaign for the Miami Marlins. The same can be said for his OPS (1.051) and wRC+ (187).
It’s also worth noting just how valuable his performance has been overall. Between 2019 and 2024, Stanton has suited up for 505 games. His play has been worth 5.2 fWAR during that time. And if we take out his 2021 season from the equation (3.0 fWAR), it’d be just 2.2 fWAR in 366 games.
He’s played in just 54 games so far in 2025, yet his fWAR is currently sitting at 1.7.
The Last Few Years Have Been Weird
That 2021 season from Stanton was what you’d expect from him. He hit .273/.354/.516 with 35 homers and 97 RBI in 579 plate appearances. He continued to get his homers between 2022 and 2024, but it was weird.
Weird in the sense that he wasn’t a consistently positive contributor on offense for the Yankees. Here’s what some of his season-long stats looked like each year:
- 2022: .759 OPS, 113 wRC+, 31 homers, 78 RBI, 1.1 fWAR in 110 games
- 2023: .695 OPS, 88 wRC+, 24 homers, 60 RBI, -0.6 fWAR in 101 games
- 2024: .773 OPS, 117 wRC+, 27 homers, 72 RBI, 0.8 fWAR in 114 games
Stanton appeared to be on the upswing in 2024, which was punctuated by a fantastic postseason. He slashed .273/.339/.709 with seven homers in 14 games as the Yankees reached the World Series for the first time since 2009.
Looking Ahead to Stanton’s Quest for 500 Homers
Stanton will be turning 36 years old in November, and he has the benefit of a solid contract situation while he chases 500 homers (especially with the way he’s been hitting this season).
The slugger’s 13-year, $325 million deal that he originally signed with the Marlins includes two more guaranteed years in 2026 ($19 million) and 2027 ($15 million). Of course, the Yankees could decide to cut ties with Stanton at any time. That was a topic of conversation over the past few years as his offensive production declined. But with him looking rejuvenated at the plate, it makes less sense at the moment.
Stanton’s contract also includes a $15 million club option for 2028, but it’s undetermined whether that will eventually get exercised (my guess would be no). So, that essentially gives him the rest of this regular season, plus two more years to reach 500 homers.
Let’s say he finishes 2025 at 450 career homers, leaving him 50 dingers shy of that magic number. He averaged 29 homers and 116 games played between 2021 and 2024. If he continues to be New York’s primary designated hitter, that at least gives him a shot to stay healthy enough to average 25 homers from 2026-27.
He’ll Have An Intriguing Hall of Fame Case
If Stanton reaches the 500-homer club, is he a Hall of Famer? There was a time (you know, before the steroid era) when 500 homers was an automatic ticket into Cooperstown. But that’s not exactly the case anymore.
Stanton’s case would be interesting, though. Joining the Yankees has certainly boosted him because of a consistent opportunity to play in the postseason. And, Giancarlo in October has been a special thing. He’s slashing .265/.331/.662 in the playoffs, which is accompanied by 18 homers and 40 RBI.
The right-handed slugger has collected 40 postseason hits. So, nearly half of them have left the yard. I think Stanton would have more than a decent chance of eventually getting into Cooperstown if he joins the 500-homer club and has a few more big postseason moments in pinstripes (including a World Series ring).
This isn’t to say that he wouldn’t still have a good chance of eventually getting in if he doesn’t surpass 500 career homers, but it’s a great accomplishment that would help him with the more traditional BBWAA voters.
What do you think Stanton has to do to eventually see himself get enshrined in the Hall of Fame once his career is over?
Stats via FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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