If we use fWAR as the barometer, Cal Raleigh’s 2025 campaign wasn’t the best season ever by a primary catcher.
His production was worth 9.1 fWAR last season. According to FanGraphs, it’s tied with Mike Piazza for the third-best performance by a primary catcher in baseball history. The only ones ahead of him include Buster Posey (9.8 in 2012) and Johnny Bench (9.2 in 1972).
But one thing nobody can debate: it was the most powerful season a catcher has ever had. Raleigh’s 60 homers easily surpassed the previous record holder (Salvador Pérez, 48 in 2021).
While that display of power was jaw-dropping, it’s now just another piece of history. With Opening Day for the 2026 MLB regular season fast approaching, everyone gets a chance to start fresh. Big Dumper is one of the guys I’ll be interested in following this year… simply because I want to see what kind of encore he has in store for us.
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A Quick Refresher on Cal Raleigh’s Historic 2025
The power progression for Raleigh since his MLB debut in 2021 has been epic:
- 2021: 2 homers, 13 RBI
- 2022: 27 homers, 63 RBI
- 2023: 30 homers, 75 RBI
- 2024: 34 homers, 100 RBI
- 2025: 60 homers, 125 RBI
His 38 homers before the All-Star break are second all-time to Barry Bonds (39 in 2001), but no catcher (switch-hitter or not) has hit more first-half taters than he has. That was followed by becoming the first catcher to win the Home Run Derby.
In addition to passing Pérez to be the single-season home run king at catcher, this performance was also the most powerful ever for a switch-hitter.
While Raleigh’s monthly OPS numbers rode a bit of a roller coaster throughout the year, his power was consistent. He slugged at least 10 homers in a month four times. His two worst months were July and August, but he hit eight and nine homers, respectively, during that time despite posting an OPS below .500.
Overall, Big Dumper’s season-long stats resulted in a .247/.359/.589 line with 60 homers (led the league), 125 RBI (led the league), 24 doubles, 110 runs scored, and 14 (!) steals across 159 games (705 plate appearances). He was named an All-Star for the first time, took home his first Silver Slugger, and finished second behind Aaron Judge in American League MVP voting.
What Projections Say About Cal Raleigh’s Expected 2026 Performance
How do you follow up a season like that? Another 60-homer campaign isn’t exactly something you can count on.
But thanks to that power progression he’s shown since 2021, the projection systems all see another big year for Big Dumper.
Here’s a quick look at a handful of projections for the Mariners’ backstop:
- ZiPS: .230/.329/.500, 41 homers, 108 RBI, 82 runs scored, 132 wRC+, 6.7 fWAR
- ATC: .229/.328/.492, 39 homers, 101 RBI, 85 runs scored, 130 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR
- Steamer: .230/.331/.487, 38 homers, 91 RBI, 89 runs scored, 129 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR
The projections on his Baseball-Reference page also look quite similar. They’re pegging him for a .236/.330/.493 triple slash with 39 homers, 96 RBI, and 84 runs scored across 615 plate appearances.
How Other Sluggers Performed Following a 60-Homer Season?
Huge power seasons like the one Raleigh just put together are rare. There have only been 54 occurrences of a 50-homer season in baseball history. And if we drill it down to just seasons with 60-plus homers, it’s only been done 10 times (by seven different dudes).
So, that had me wondering: how did the hitters who mashed 60-plus homers perform the following season? Since Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa are the only ones to accomplish this feat more than once, I looked at what they did the season after they surpassed that milestone for the first time.
- Barry Bonds: 46 homers in 2002
- Mark McGwire: 65 homers in 1999
- Sammy Sosa: 63 homers in 1999
- Aaron Judge: 37 homers in 2023
- Roger Maris: 33 homers in 1962
- Babe Ruth: 54 homers in 1928
There are some special circumstances for several hitters in this list. There’s the PED conversation for McGwire and Sosa. You can also throw Bonds in there, but he would’ve hit way more than 46 homers if he hadn’t been walked 198 times. Time on the injured list limited Judge’s 2023 playing time to 106 games.
But even with all that, one thing is constant for these 60-homer hitters: the power surge continued into the following year at various levels. For Raleigh, it’s a question of whether he can keep that going and if he can produce another year of 40-plus taters.
The One Wild Card That’s Specific to Raleigh
My train of thought would be incomplete if I didn’t also mention one unique circumstance that separates Raleigh from the rest of those hitters in the 60-homer club.
I’ve only mentioned it a handful of times already, but the dude’s a catcher! Putting together the kind of 2025 he did was even more impressive because he donned the tools of ignorance for 121 of the 159 games he appeared in last season (not including the postseason).
Catcher is the most physically demanding position on the field, and he has to manage an entire pitching staff in Seattle while also slugging those consistent dingers.
Raleigh has caught at least 115 games per season since 2022. Does that play a role in how productive he’ll be on offense after the Mariners nearly reached the World Series last October?
We’ll have to wait and see—but if Raleigh clears 40 homers again after a season like that, it’ll be one heck of an encore.
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