Last Updated on March 16, 2026 by Matt Musico
Last year, four MLB players cracked the 50-home-run threshold.
The season before that, in 2024, just two players reached that benchmark. In each of the two prior campaigns, 2022 and 2023, one player apiece cleared 50 homers. Nobody uncorked that many dingers in 2021.
This is all to say: Hitting 50 home runs is hard! Yet it is among the milestones we expect to be reached by at least one player each and every season. Many are even prepared to put money on it. As the folks over at Online Sports Betting note, “prop bets explode” around tent-pole events and milestones.
The odds of players cracking 50 dingers in a season ranks among MLB’s quintessential examples.
So who do we consider most likely to eclipse the 50-dinger mark this season? And how many of these names also surpassed it last year? Here goes nothing!
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
We are taking a “risk” right off the, ahem, bat.
Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers is known as someone who too frequently battles injuries in certain circles. Anecdotally, it does always feel like he’s dealing with something. But it has not impacted his total games played as a hitter over the past half-decade. He has made fewer than 155 appearances since 2021.
This bodes well for his chances of rattling off another 50 home runs. Clearing the 150-game marker is essentially a prerequisite for anyone going yard that frequently.
At the same time, it does feel like we are tempting fate. This would be the third straight season in which Ohtani bombs 50 homers. No player has crossed the half-century threshold in three consecutive years since Sammy Sosa did it in four straight from 1998 to 2001.
Recent history suggests something will happen to derail Ohtani’s 50-homer track. But if we are going against the trend, it might as well be for the superstar who has led the National League in slugging percentage through each of the past three seasons.
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
What’s spicier than having one player clear 50 home runs in three straight years for the first time since Sosa? A prediction that two stars are about to do it.
Enter Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees.
Going on 34, the slugger continues to perform like he’s in his prime. He has led all qualified MLB players in slugging percentage for three of the past four seasons.
Of course, his availability remains a dice roll. Last year was just the fourth time he tallied 150 or more appearances for his career. And it was the first time he did so in back-to-back seasons.
Complicated still, MLB players have topped the 50-home-run threshold just nine times after their 33rd birthday, according to FanGraphs. That would make this a rarity.
What else is new, though? Judge already has one of those nine seasons under his belt. And he continues to pack the punch required to deliver another one.
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
Speaking of players age-33-and-older who can topple the 50-homer milestone, we have Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies.
After getting to 50 for the first time in his career last season, the slugger seems primed to do so again. He continues to represent the heart of Philly’s batting order and has more margin for error than many realize.
Yes, recently turning 33 does add a layer of uncertainty. But Schwarber just notched a career-high slugging percentage. What’s more, he recorded 56 homers last year while playing in all 162 games. He can afford to drop off a smidge and still go for 50.
Schwarber has played in at least 150 games and made at least 573 plate appearances in each of the past four seasons.
Without any lingering or big-time health questions following him into the 2026 season, he isn’t just a worthwhile choice to round out our list. He’s the smartest one, too.
Love home runs? Sign up for the MLBDD Substack today and start getting interesting home run-related observations straight to your inbox! And if you’re new to MLB Daily Dingers, it’s probably best to start here.
