Last Updated on February 13, 2024 by Matt Musico
Baseball is so close, I can smell it. In just a couple of weeks, MLB teams will be at their respective spring training complexes getting prepared for the 2024 regular season. Which players are expected to have a big year in the power department?
I’ve published articles on every team’s single-season home run leader after each of the last two seasons (you can see 2022’s version here and 2023’s version here). It’s time for a little forward-thinking this year, folks. Instead of waiting until Game 162 is in the books, I was curious as to which hitters are projected to lead their respective squad in home runs.
The teams are separated by division below. We’ll first run through the AL East, AL Central, and AL West before hitting the NL East, NL Central, and NL West. All of the 2024 numbers you’ll see are coming from FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections, which are compiled by Dan Szymborski.
Projected 2024 HR Leaders for Each MLB Team
American League East
Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander, 28 Home Runs
Santander led the Orioles in 2022 with 33 homers and tied with Gunnar Henderson atop the team leaderboard in 2023 with 28 homers each.
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers, 33 Homers
This would also be the third straight year Rafael Devers leads the Sox in taters. He hit 27 in 2022 and 33 in 2023.
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge, 40 Home Runs
Was there any doubt on this one? Aaron Judge broke the American League single-season home run record in 2022 with 62 homers. Despite being limited to 106 games in 2023, he still managed to lead the Yankees with 37 dingers.
Tampa Bay Rays: Isaac Paredes, 26 Homers
Isaac Paredes has seen his power blossom since joining the Rays. He shared the team lead in dingers with Randy Arozarena in 2022 when they each hit 20 homers. He took over the 2023 team leaderboard by slugging a career-high 31 homers.
Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 31 Home Runs
After hitting 48 homers in 2021, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has watched his season-long total drop each year. He’s still led the Jays in 2022 (32) and 2023 (26), but it would be nice to see him get back over the 30-homer plateau for Toronto.
American League Central
Chicago White Sox: Luis Robert Jr., 28 Homers
Luis Robert Jr. enjoyed a breakout season in 2023 by slugging 38 homers, which led all White Sox hitters. Flirting with the 30-homer plateau in 2024 wouldn’t be a bad way to follow it up.
Cleveland Guardians: Jose Ramirez, 26 Home Runs
No Cleveland player has hit more homers since the start of 2022 than Jose Ramirez. He led the squad in 2022 with 26 taters and followed that up with another 24 in 2023. If he hits another 20-plus homers in ’24, it would be his seventh such effort since 2017.
Detroit Tigers: Spencer Torkelson, 33 Homers
After hitting just eight homers through 110 games played as a rookie in 2022, Spencer Torkelson took a step forward in 2023 regarding his power. He slugged 31 homers in 159 games played to lead Detroit. We’ll see if he can do it again.
Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr., 26 Home Runs
Bobby Witt Jr. became the first primary shortstop to slug 30 homers in a single season in franchise history. He made it even more special by joining the 30-30 club, too. He hit 30 taters on the button to lead Kansas City in that category last season.
Minnesota Twins: Carlos Correa, 21 Homers
Max Kepler‘s 24 homers led the Twins in 2023, but ZiPS is projecting a new king for Minnesota in 2024. Carlos Correa failed to surpass the 20-homer plateau last year (he hit 18). If he does it in this upcoming campaign, though, it’ll be the seventh time he gets past that mark.
American League West
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez, 36 Home Runs
Yordan Alvarez has led the Astros in homers in 2022 (37) and 2023 (31). He’s also entering 2024 with three straight 30-homer performances under his belt. As long as this man stays healthy, he’s going to get his dingers. Alvarez was limited to 114 games last season.
Los Angeles Angels: Jo Adell, 22 Homers
Mike Trout led the way in 2022 with 40 dingers, while Shohei Ohtani paced the squad in 2023 with 44 homers. The Angels are entering a new era without Ohtani in the fold any longer. But still, I’m not going to lie, I was pretty surprised to see Jo Adell‘s name here. He’s played in 178 games for Los Angeles since debuting in 2020, hitting a total of 18 homers.
Oakland Athletics: Brent Rooker, 27 Home Runs
Brent Rooker took advantage of playing in his first full season in the big leagues with Oakland. He entered the year with 10 career homers and ended up leading the squad with 30 in 2023.
Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodriguez, 32 Homers
Julio Rodriguez just missed reaching the 30-homer plateau and the 30-30 club during his 2022 AL Rookie of the Year campaign. He accomplished both feats in 2023 and led the Mariners with 32 home runs.
Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia, 31 Home Runs
Before he went on a postseason power binge for Texas, Adolis Garcia was doing it in the regular season. He was the Rangers’ 2023 home run king with 39 homers. It was the second time he’s slugged at least 30 homers in one year.
Projected 2024 HR Leaders for Each MLB Team
National League East
Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr., 43 Homers
Ronald Acuña Jr. is coming off an NL MVP Award performance in which he also founded the 40-homer, 70-steal club. So, running it back with yet another 40-homer season seems like a good strategy for an encore. Matt Olson led the league and set a new franchise record with 54 homers in 2023.
Miami Marlins: Jake Burger, 27 Home Runs
Jorge Soler led the Marlins with 36 homers in 2023, but he’s no longer on the club. He exercised his opt-out clause to hit free agency after a powerful campaign. The 2024 season will be Jake Burger‘s first full season with Miami. He hit 34 total homers last year — 25 with the White Sox before getting traded and another nine with the Fish down the stretch.
New York Mets: Pete Alonso, 37 Homers
Pete Alonso enters 2024 tied for the fourth-most home runs in Mets history. He’s led the team in homers each year since making his debut in 2019. Alonso has never hit fewer than 37 homers in a season when 162 games are on the schedule. The first baseman has slugged 40-plus in 2022 and 2023. As long as he stays healthy, he’ll be flirting with that number again.
Philadelphia Phillies: Kyle Schwarber, 38 Home Runs
The 2024 season will be Kyle Schwarber‘s third with the Phillies. He led the National League in 2022 with 46 homers and then came right back to break his personal-best mark in 2023 with 47.
Washington Nationals: Joey Gallo, 24 Homers
Joey Gallo hasn’t even played his first game in a Nats uniform yet, but he’s expected to be the club’s greatest power source in 2024. He hit 21 homers in 111 games for the Twins last season. Juan Soto‘s 21 homers in 2022 led Washington, while Lane Thomas took home the honors in 2023 with 28 dingers.
National League Central
Chicago Cubs: Christopher Morel, 26 Home Runs
Christopher Morel and Cody Bellinger shared the honors of being the Cubs’ 2023 home run kings by each hitting 26 homers. Morel didn’t even make his season debut in the big leagues until May. We’ll see if he can get past that number with a full MLB season ahead of him.
Cincinnati Reds: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 28 Homers
The Reds are loaded with fresh talent. Any of their young position players could end up at the top of Cincy’s home run leaderboard in 2024. Spencer Steer took home the crown in 2023 after hitting 23 taters, but ZiPS has Christian Encarnacion-Strand capturing the honors this year.
Milwaukee Brewers: Willy Adames, 28 Home Runs
Willy Adames has been a consistent power source since joining the Brewers in the middle of the 2021 season. He hit 20 homers in 99 games with Milwaukee that year, followed by 31 in 2022. The 24 he hit in 2023 led the team.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Jack Suwinski, 26 Homers
Jack Suwinski led the Pirates with 26 homers in 2023, so why not do it again in 2024, right? That only makes sense. If he does reach these heights, it will be his second 20-homer campaign in three big-league seasons.
St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Gorman, 28 Home Runs
Nolan Gorman just about doubled his homer output between 2022 (14) and 2023 (27). His 27 homers were the most on the Cardinals last year, and ZiPS is projecting a new single-season career-high mark for the left-handed slugger this year.
National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker & Eugenio Suarez: 22 Homers
We’ve got a tie! And the only one in baseball, according to ZiPS. Christian Walker has led the DBacks in homers each of the past two years (36 in 2022, 33 in 2023). So, it’d be a smidge surprising if he didn’t flirt with 30 homers again. Eugenio Suarez is entering his first season with Arizona after getting acquired via trade over the winter. After consecutive 31-homer seasons in 2021 and 2022, he slugged 22 for the Mariners last year.
Colorado Rockies: Hunter Goodman, 24 Home Runs
Hunter Goodman made his big-league debut in 2023. He racked up just 23 games and 77 plate appearances during that time, which resulted in one homer. So, the upcoming campaign should be interesting to watch. Ryan McMahon led the Rockies with 23 homers in 2023.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani, 38 Homers
Mookie Betts led the Dodgers with 39 homers in 2023, but there’s some new dude in town named Shohei Ohtani that might make it hard for him to repeat in 2024. Ohtani has hit at least 34 homers each of the past three years, which has also included two 40-homer efforts. And since he won’t have to focus on pitching this year because of his rehab from Tommy John surgery, opposing pitchers better watch out.
San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr., 36 Home Runs
Fernando Tatis Jr. led the National League in 2021 with 42 homers before not playing at all in 2022 because of injury and a performance-enhancing drug suspension. Soto led the squad with 35 homers in 2023, but he now plays for the Yankees, so someone has to take his place.
San Francisco Giants: Jorge Soler, 23 Homers
There were a few close calls, but the Giants had the honor of being the only MLB team with a ZiPS-projected home run leader not breaking 20 dingers. David Villar was the leader with 18 homers before San Francisco signed Jorge Soler to a three-year, $42 million deal.
can overtake him — he hit five homers in 46 games played in 2023 for San Francisco.
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